Next-gen graphics cards from Nvidia and AMD are due later this year, and we just found out more about when exactly those Lovelace and RDNA 3 products might arrive, giving us a clue as to how the GPU wars new generation could pan out accordingly.
This comes from German tech site 3DCenter.org which gave us a roundup of all the rumored tape releases, tests and supposed release dates for upcoming graphics cards from Nvidia and AMD, put together using latest information from two major Twitter leakers, namely Kopite7kimi and Greymon55.
Of course, this is just a summary of rumors and guesses, and as 3DCenter makes clear, there are big caveats to accuracy here, but nonetheless it’s interesting to see how the speculation takes shape regarding which GPUs might come first (and that ties in with what we’ve heard elsewhere as well, which gives it a bit more weight – more on that later).
So according to the prediction made here, the initial products for Nvidia and AMD – for what will likely be the RTX 4000 and RX 7000 series respectively – will be the high-end AD102 for the former and Navi 33 for the latter, may – be arriving in September or October 2022.
This means that the first product released from Nvidia could be the flagship RTX 4090, and that alone, perhaps, as the most recent rumor from Kopite7kimi is that the RTX 4080 will not use the AD102 chip and will in fact be built around the AD103 (help yourself to some condiments with that statement, of course).
AMD, on the other hand, is going to release the Navi 33 products which are mid-range GPUs, not high-end ones. There is some confusion as to exactly where the limits of Navi 33 will be, going by the latest from another high-profile leaker, Moore’s Law is Dead, but those GPUs could be RX 7600 or even 7700 models. .
Nvidia’s next Lovelace graphics cards apparently won’t be too far behind, however, with AD103 and AD104, which could represent the RTX 4080, 4070 and 4060, being tested a month or two after the RTX 4090, meaning that all of these GPUs are expected to debut at some point in Q4 2022 (and possibly November as a vague best guess of what we’re seeing here).
AMD, on the other hand, will make gamers wait until 2023 for the rest of its lineup if this rumor is correct, theorizing that the flagship RX 7900 (Navi 31) offering will appear early in the year (presumably January). , and the rest of the RDNA 3 lineup (including RX 7800 products) might not arrive until Spring 2023 (that’s Navi 32).
Analysis: AMD advantage, at least initially?
The most important thing to remember here is that even though this is the expected release schedule for Nvidia and AMD right now, there’s still a long way to go in the testing process, so things may change from anyway. When you consider that these are just rumors, it’s clear that we have to be very careful and not give too much importance to these supposed release times.
What’s interesting, though, is that from the AMD side, this ties in with what we’ve heard from YouTuber Moore’s Law is Dead, who thinks Navi 32 won’t arrive until the first half of 2023, so the spring of next year would seem about right. He also believes that the Navi 33 products will be the first to be released for AMD, so it’s a trio of leakers that make that prediction – giving the rumor a bit more weight.
Where things differ for Moore’s Law is Dead is that it claims the RDNA 3 flagship won’t be far behind Navi 33 at all, whereas 3DCenter’s summary predicts a much larger gap.
Anyway, based on what’s being announced here, the initial battle of the next-gen GPU wars could be Nvidia’s high-end against AMD’s mid-range, and that should give Team Red the advantage, at least in terms of getting traction with adoption out of the gate.
Nvidia’s problem will be that if it only has the RTX 4090 on sale to begin with, it’s a niche proposition that will invariably come at a steep price, and furthermore, its supposed power demands could force gamers to put upgraded PSU, making it an even harder sell (in terms of the hassle and extra cost of shutting off your power).
So AMD’s RDNA 3 line could take over from Nvidia initially, if it turns out to be profitable – assuming, that is, Team Red can ramp up production so that supply meets Requirement.
However, Nvidia shouldn’t be too far behind with the rest of its RTX 4000 lineup, bringing all of these cards in before AMD releases anything else, at least in theory. So the situation could shift back in Team Green’s favor fairly quickly, depending on how the relative merits and prices of these GPUs (and stock levels as well) evolve.
Finally, we also have to keep in mind that later in 2023 the GPU world won’t be a two-horse race, and we don’t know what kind of impact Intel’s desktop Arc graphics cards will have. (they should be out next month, and likely hitting shelves in sizable quantities later in 2022).